India’s Export Offensive on Pakistan Deepens: Air Cargo Route Could Be Next
India appears to be intensifying its strategic economic offensive against Pakistan, following an earlier move to restrict water flow under the Indus Waters Treaty. According to recent reports, the next blow could come in the form of an air cargo route suspension, further isolating Pakistan economically and logistically.
🔍 Background: Mounting Economic Pressures
In recent years, India has increasingly leaned into economic tools as part of its diplomatic strategy to respond to Pakistan’s alleged support of cross-border terrorism. These tools include trade curbs, export bans, and non-tariff barriers. The current geopolitical climate—fueled by continued border tensions and a series of diplomatic stalemates—has given rise to a sharper trade strategy.
✈️ Why the Air Cargo Route Matters
The air cargo corridor between India and Pakistan plays a crucial role in transporting perishable goods, pharmaceuticals, and high-value shipments. If suspended:
Trade in time-sensitive goods will be disrupted.
Costs will increase for exporters relying on fast transit.
Regional trade dynamics may shift toward alternate routes via the Gulf or Central Asia.
💧 From Water to Trade: A Calculated Escalation
India had earlier made headlines by halting some water projects impacting Pakistan’s access to rivers under the Indus Waters Treaty. While this was seen as a signal move, the potential shutdown of the air cargo route represents a practical escalation with tangible economic implications.
📊 The Numbers at Stake
As per the latest trade statistics:
India’s exports to Pakistan dropped by over 90% since 2019.
Air cargo traffic remains among the few surviving economic exchanges post the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot standoff.
This move could end the residual official trade between the two nations.
🇮🇳 India’s Policy Objectives
India is leveraging economic instruments to:
Deter cross-border hostilities through non-military means.
Signal international stakeholders about its firm stance on national security.
Apply pressure without direct confrontation.
FAQs: India’s Export Offensive on Pakistan
Q1: Why is India cutting off trade routes to Pakistan?
India aims to use economic deterrents to influence Pakistan’s policies and behavior, especially concerning national security and terrorism-related issues.
Q2: How will the air cargo ban affect Pakistan?
It will disrupt access to crucial imports, increase delivery times, raise costs, and create supply chain uncertainties—especially for perishable and high-value goods.
Q3: Is this move legal under international trade laws?
Countries retain the sovereign right to manage bilateral trade policies. However, restrictions must comply with WTO guidelines and bilateral treaties where applicable.
Q4: What could Pakistan do in response?
Pakistan might seek new trade routes, appeal to international forums, or retaliate with similar measures. However, its limited trade leverage with India may reduce its options.
Q5: Has India done this before?
Yes. India downgraded trade relations after the 2019 Pulwama attack and revoked Pakistan’s Most Favored Nation (MFN) status.
Conclusion
India’s strategy of using economic pressure as a tool of diplomacy is reaching new levels with the possibility of an air cargo shutdown targeting Pakistan. While it may not trigger immediate retaliation, the move signals a broader realignment in India's foreign policy—one where trade becomes an instrument of power, not just commerce.
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Published on :April 29, 2025 by : PAVAN