The early trends of the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 have triggered intense debate, especially within the opposition alliance. Initial numbers indicate that the Congress party, one of the key constituents of the Mahagathbandhan, may not be performing strongly enough to support the coalition’s overall tally.
As counting progresses across constituencies, political observers are already assessing whether Congress’s weaker performance could be dragging the alliance down in crucial seats.
Congress Contesting Many Seats, But Performance Appears Soft
Congress contested a significant number of seats within the alliance structure. However, early indicators show:
Lower-than-expected strike rate
Reduced margins in traditional strongholds
Tough competition from NDA candidates
Loss of momentum in urban and semi-urban regions
This has created pressure on the Mahagathbandhan, which was counting on Congress to hold its ground while other allies attempted to make gains.
Mahagathbandhan’s Overall Numbers Impacted
The early numbers reflect a mixed picture for the opposition alliance:
Strong performance by some regional partners
But Congress’s weaker showing pulling down the combined tally
Several close contests where Congress trails narrowly
Anti-incumbency not converting uniformly across the state
The alliance’s electoral math appears to be affected wherever Congress is directly contesting the NDA’s stronger local candidates.
Why Congress’s Performance Matters So Much
In Bihar’s fractured electoral landscape, every seat matters.
Congress’s results are particularly critical because:
They influence the alliance’s seat conversion rate
They control several vote-heavy regions
They help balance caste and regional equations in the coalition
Their underperformance forces other partners to overcompensate
Even a small dip in Congress’s individual performance significantly affects the total alliance strength.
Possible Reasons Behind Congress’s Struggles
Analysts point to multiple factors contributing to Congress’s early weakness:
✔ Candidate selection challenges
Some constituencies saw internal disagreements and late candidate announcements.
✔ Weak grassroots organisational network
Compared to regional parties and the NDA, Congress’s booth-level presence is limited.
✔ Lack of sharp messaging
The party struggled to push a clear narrative amid loud coalition and NDA campaigns.
✔ Local vs national focus mismatch
Voters in Bihar often prioritise local leadership and development records—an area where Congress is seen as less assertive.
Is Mahagathbandhan Still in the Race?
Yes, the battle is far from over.
While Congress’s performance is a concern, the Mahagathbandhan still shows strength in:
Rural belts
Yadav-dominated constituencies
Muslim-majority seats
Areas where regional allies have strong cadres
If trends shift later in the day, the alliance could still push toward competitive numbers.
Conclusion
Early trends from Bihar’s 2025 Assembly Elections suggest the Congress may be underperforming, putting the Mahagathbandhan at a disadvantage. However, these are only initial indicators. The picture could evolve as more rounds of counting take place.
One thing is certain — the Congress’s performance remains a decisive factor in whether the Mahagathbandhan can remain competitive against the NDA’s rising numbers.
FAQs
Q1. Is Congress solely responsible for Mahagathbandhan’s early struggles?
Not entirely, but its lower-than-expected strike rate is affecting the alliance tally.
Q2. Can the numbers change later in the day?
Yes. Early trends often shift as counting progresses.
Q3. Which areas is Congress struggling in?
Urban and semi-urban seats, plus a few traditional strongholds.
Q4. Are regional allies performing better?
Some allies appear stronger in rural belts and caste-based pockets.
Q5. Is the Mahagathbandhan out of the race?
No. Trends can still change as more EVM rounds are counted.
Published on : 14th November
Published by : SMITA
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Source Credit : Edited by: Manjiri Chitre /NDTV