NASA Lowers Impact Probability of Asteroid 2024 YR4 After New Data
NASA has revised its risk assessment of asteroid 2024 YR4, significantly lowering the probability of it impacting Earth in 2032. The latest observations, gathered from ground-based telescopes, have refined the asteroid’s trajectory, reducing the estimated chance of collision to just 0.0039% (1 in 26,000).
New Observations and Updated Risk Analysis
Initially, asteroid 2024 YR4, which measures between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, raised concerns due to its projected path toward Earth's vicinity. However, with additional tracking and refined calculations, scientists now confirm a much lower likelihood of impact. The European Space Agency (ESA) also conducted an independent analysis, reporting an updated impact probability of 0.16%—still significantly lower than earlier estimates.
Potential Impact on the Moon
While the risk to Earth has diminished, there remains a 1% chance that the asteroid could collide with the Moon in 2032. This possibility is under continued observation as astronomers refine their data.
Future Tracking and Monitoring
NASA and other space agencies will continue monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4 to improve trajectory predictions. The asteroid will remain visible to ground-based telescopes until April 2025, after which it will become too distant for effective tracking until 2028. However, space-based observatories, including the James Webb Space Telescope, are scheduled to observe the asteroid between March and May 2025 to gather further insights.
Importance of Planetary Defense
This case highlights the importance of continuous monitoring of near-Earth objects (NEOs) to ensure planetary safety. NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) and international space agencies remain committed to improving early detection and risk assessment methods.
For more updates on asteroid tracking and planetary defense efforts, stay tuned to NASA’s official reports.
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