As Bihar gears up for Phase 1 of its Assembly elections, all eyes are on how early voting trends could set the tone for the rest of the contest. Covering 121 constituencies across 18 districts, this phase will test both traditional alliances and emerging political forces as they battle for early momentum.
1. Changing Voter Dynamics
Recent voter roll revisions have reduced registered voters by around 5% in many constituencies. This shift could impact results in several tight races where margins were already narrow in previous elections. For both alliances, re-energizing their core voter bases will be crucial.
2. Candidate Landscape and Competition
Phase 1 will see more than 1,300 candidates contesting, averaging about 11 per seat — indicating a highly fragmented field. Only a small share of these are women, making this a male-dominated electoral phase. The high number of independents could split votes and produce surprise results.
3. Alliances and Caste Arithmetic
Bihar’s electoral landscape continues to be shaped by caste equations. The NDA banks on upper-caste and development-oriented voters, while the Mahagathbandhan relies heavily on OBC, EBC, and minority groups. How each camp mobilizes its base amid shifting demographics will define early momentum.
4. Role of New Political Players
New entrants, such as recently formed regional parties, have added unpredictability to the contest. Even if they secure only 10–15% of votes, their presence could significantly alter results in close constituencies. The real question — whose votes will they cut into?
5. Key Issues Driving the Vote
Beyond caste and alliances, voters are focusing on pressing local issues:
Unemployment and youth migration
Infrastructure and development gaps
Law and order concerns
Rising cost of living
Candidates with credible local track records may gain an advantage over those relying solely on party symbols.
6. What to Watch in Phase 1
Voter Turnout: Early turnout patterns will show which side mobilized better.
Independent Influence: A rise in independent candidates could fragment traditional vote banks.
Swing Constituencies: Seats with previously narrow margins are most vulnerable to changes.
Youth Factor: First-time voters may tilt results in unpredictable ways.
Conclusion
Phase 1 of Bihar’s Assembly elections may not decide the final outcome, but it will set the narrative for the rest of the campaign. With updated voter lists, new political entrants, and a more competitive field, this opening round is less about dominance and more about signaling who truly holds Bihar’s political pulse.
FAQs
Q1. How many constituencies will vote in Phase 1?
A total of 121 assembly constituencies across 18 districts will go to polls in the first phase.
Q2. When will Phase 1 voting take place?
Voting for Phase 1 is scheduled for November 6, 2025.
Q3. Why is this phase significant?
It will set early voter sentiment and indicate which alliances have the strongest grassroots presence.
Q4. What challenges do major alliances face?
Voter fatigue, shifting caste loyalties, and the rise of smaller regional parties could make outcomes unpredictable.
Q5. What issues are dominating voter discussions?
Employment, inflation, local infrastructure, and governance performance are key themes.
Published on : 5th November
Published by : SMITA
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