Introduction
In a surprising twist in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), led by Tejashwi Yadav, emerged with the highest vote share — despite suffering a major setback in terms of seats won. While the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), primarily led by BJP and JDU, secured a dominant number of seats, RJD’s vote share reflects a complex political reality.
Voting Breakdown & Key Numbers
According to data from the Election Commission and real-time trends, RJD secured approximately 22.76 %–23% of the total votes.
This is ~1.86%–2.92% more than BJP, whose vote share was around ~20–21%.
Similarly, RJD led JDU by ~3.75%, with JDU’s vote share in the high teens.
However, despite this strong vote share, RJD is leading in only about 24–27 seats out of the 243-member assembly
This performance marks one of RJD’s worst seat tallies since 2010, when it won only 22 seats.
Why Did This Happen? Explaining the Paradox
Vote Distribution vs. Seat Distribution
High vote share does not automatically translate into winning many constituencies. RJD may have earned large margins in some areas, but lost narrowly in many others.
The first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system means vote share and seat share often diverge.
Geographical Concentration
RJD’s core base (Yadavs, certain backward communities) may be highly mobilized in particular constituencies, boosting their overall vote share.
In contrast, NDA partners (BJP, JDU) may have more evenly spread support, allowing them to convert votes into seats more efficiently.
Alliances & Vote Splitting
The performance of RJD’s allies (Congress, CPI-ML Liberation, CPI) was weak, which limited their ability to convert vote share into seats.
Meanwhile, NDA’s alliance coordination seems to have worked in favor of seat conversion.
High Voter Turnout
Bihar recorded a very high voter turnout in this election — over 66%, per reports.
Higher participation may have brought out more of RJD’s base.
Local Dynamics & Candidate Strength
In several constituencies, NDA candidates might have had stronger ground-level organization or more favorable local demographics.
Leadership matters: While Tejashwi is a popular face, in many constituencies, the strength of individual NDA candidates may have outweighed party vote share.
Implications & What It Means for Bihar Politics
Political Clout vs. Legislative Power: RJD’s high vote share gives it moral and political legitimacy as a mass-based party, even as it remains weak in legislative strength.
Opposition Strategy: This trend may prompt RJD to rethink its strategy — possibly focusing on targeted constituencies rather than broad-based campaigning.
Future Alliances: RJD might push for stronger or more strategic alliances to convert its vote share into more seats in future elections.
NDA’s Governance Mandate: Despite RJD’s vote share, NDA’s seat majority gives it a clear mandate to form government, possibly strengthening its governance claim.
Voter Sentiment: The disparity suggests a split sentiment — many voters want RJD’s vision (or are disillusioned with default options), but local ground realities still favor NDA in many pockets.
FAQ
Q1: How did RJD get more votes but win fewer seats?
A1: RJD secured a high vote share (~23%) because of strong base support in several constituencies. However, in a first-past-the-post electoral system, winning seats depends on converting votes in individual constituencies. RJD likely piled up large margins in some areas but lost narrowly in many others, which led to fewer seats.
Q2: What was the exact vote share of RJD, BJP, and JDU?
A2: According to Election Commission trends and media reporting, RJD’s vote share was around 22.76%–23%, BJP’s was around 20–21%, and JDU’s was approximately 18.9%.
Q3: Why is this called a “massive setback” for RJD?
A3: Despite the high vote share, RJD won only around 24–27 seats, well below half of the 243-member Bihar Assembly. This is one of their worst performances since 2010.
Q4: What does this mean for future Bihar politics?
A4: RJD has demonstrated that it has strong mass base support, giving it political legitimacy. However, to convert that into actual power, it needs better electoral strategies, stronger alliances, and improved ground-level organization. For NDA, the result consolidates their governing mandate.
Q5: Can RJD use this vote-share result to bargain politically?
A5: Yes. Even though RJD has fewer seats, their high vote share gives them moral leverage. They could use this to push for greater influence in future alliances or negotiations, or to reframe themselves as the key mass-based opposition.
source credit : Pushkar Tiwari
Published on : 15 th November
Published by : Reddy kumar
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